Water Future Leads Future Earth Cross-Cutting Initiative to Unlock Investment Pathways for Sustainable and Resilient Agroecosystems in Asia

The Sustainable Water Future Programme is leading a major cross-cutting initiative under Future Earth Asia focused on developing solution-oriented approaches to identify and unlock investment opportunities for sustainable and resilient agroecosystems across Asia and the Pacific.

The initiative brings together regional scientific networks and interdisciplinary experts to address one of Asia’s most pressing sustainability challenges: the growing trade-offs between agricultural production and ecosystem health. The work integrates advanced spatial analysis, socio-ecological systems (SES) intelligence, sustainable land management (SLM), and decision-support approaches to guide investments in regions facing increasing environmental and agricultural risks.

Led by Anik Bhaduri and the Water Future team, the initiative has already completed a regional assessment of Agricultural Production Threats (APT) and Ecosystem Services Threats (EST) across Asia and the Pacific. The analysis integrates multiple layers of environmental, hydrological, agricultural, and socio-economic datasets to identify regions where agricultural systems and ecosystem services are simultaneously under severe stress.

The findings reveal significant hotspots across South and Southeast Asia, including India, Pakistan, the Philippines, Vietnam, and Indonesia, where agricultural intensification, groundwater depletion, biodiversity loss, deforestation, flooding, and climate variability are converging to create complex socio-ecological risks.

A key innovation of the initiative is the development of a new SES Intelligence framework that combines active inference, systems learning, thermodynamics, information theory, and adaptive governance principles to improve how investments are designed and implemented in complex agroecosystems. The framework aims to support dynamic and adaptive decision-making by helping systems continuously learn from environmental signals, stakeholder feedback, and emerging risks.

The initiative also introduces the concept of Least Action Pathways (LAP), which focuses on identifying low-resistance, context-sensitive interventions that align with local capacities, knowledge systems, and institutional realities. This approach seeks to move beyond rigid top-down planning towards adaptive, co-designed solutions that are both scalable and socially legitimate.

As part of the cross-cutting work, the team is developing a georeferenced Effective Response Index (ERI) to assess the effectiveness of sustainable land management solutions in addressing the trade-offs between agriculture and ecosystem services. The framework integrates global datasets, WOCAT information, stakeholder knowledge, and spatial modelling to help pinpoint where investments can generate the greatest sustainability impact.

The initiative further emphasizes stakeholder co-design and participatory systems approaches. Researchers, policymakers, local governments, farmers, and regional partners will collaborate through workshops, surveys, and adaptive learning platforms to ensure that investment pathways are grounded in local realities while contributing to regional sustainability goals.

Water Future is working closely with regional collaborators including Future Earth Asia, the Global Land Programme Japan Nodal Office, Future Earth Korea National Committee, Future Earth Thailand National Committee, and multiple scientific and policy partners across Asia.

The initiative contributes directly to broader regional efforts on climate resilience, sustainable agriculture, biodiversity conservation, and water security, while supporting evidence-based investment planning for governments, development agencies, and financial actors.

The work is expected to generate multiple outputs, including scientific publications, SES Intelligence frameworks, practitioner guides, and regional decision-support tools to accelerate sustainable transformation pathways across Asian agroecosystems.